In Iowa, the Legislative Services Agency, a nonpartisan agency of the General Assembly, is responsible for drafting congressional and legislative maps after the decennial census. It is advised in this process by a Temporary Redistricting Advisory Commission made up of five members. The majority and minority leader of each chamber of the legislature choose one member, and the first four members vote for the last one. The Legislative Services Agency’s first two proposed plans can be rejected by the legislature but cannot be amended. If the Agency needs to draw a third map, the legislature is allowed to amend it. In that respect, although Iowa’s redistricting process does involve the participation of nonpartisan actors, a political majority in the legislature can still influence the process. Though this hasn’t happened since 1981, a legislature dissatisfied with the political effects of the maps proposed by the Legislative Services Agency could reject the first two plans and amend the third one, effectively taking control of the process.
Such a scenario did not happen in 2021. The legislature approved the second map drafted by the Agency. According to the Des Moines Register, although Republicans argued that they rejected the first plan because of technical issues with the state legislative maps, it is clear that their vote was in great part politically motivated.
District 1
Iowa’s first congressional district was much bluer in the first plan proposed by the Agency than in the second iteration. In the first plan, it included three of the five most populous Iowan cities (Iowa City, Davenport, and Cedar Rapids). Seventy percent of the potential district’s voting age population came from these cities’ counties (Johnson, Scott, and Linn). Joe Biden would have carried this district by close to nine points, making it almost impossible for newly elected Mariannette Miller-Meeks to win re-election in 2022. In 2020, she flipped the district (she was running in the second district at that time, which mostly corresponds to the current first district), succeeding seven-term incumbent Dave Loebsack, but underperformed Donald Trump, winning by 6 votes in a district that voted for the incumbent President by four. Thanks to a mix of incumbency, a favorable electoral environment in the state of Iowa, and long-term political trends in the area, Rep. Miller-Meeks overperformed in 2022. She outperformed Donald Trump’s 2020 result by 3.8 points. However, such a result could not have been anticipated at the time when Iowa drew its congressional districts, leaving the legislature to think only with Miller-Meeks’ poor 2020 performance in mind. It was thus unthinkable to let Miller-Meeks run in a Biden district.
The second plan proposed by the Legislative Services Agency kept Linn County (Cedar Rapids) and Johnson County (Iowa City) separated as they were under the former congressional lines, making the first district more Republican and the second district more Democratic. Instead of having to deal with three major blue counties, Mariannette Miller-Meeks’ district was relieved of Cedar Rapids’ Linn County and replaced by ten more rural Republican-leaning counties with a similar population as Linn County. With this change, the first district went from being a Biden +8.6 points district in the first plan to becoming a Trump +2.9 points district in the second, approved version.
2016 and 2020 presidential elections’ results in the 1st district under the two plans proposed by the Legislative Services Agency
| First 2021 plan (rejected) | 2nd 2021 plan (enacted) | |
| Result of the 2016 presidential election | Clinton +6.3 | Trump +3.1 |
| Result of the 2020 presidential election | Biden +8.6 | Trump +2.9 |
District 2
In its first plan, the Agency drew one blue district, two red districts, and one competitive district. By getting Linn County out of the first district and including it in the second instead, the Agency made the latter more Democratic. In the second and final version, the second district’s three biggest cities are Dubuque, Cedar Rapids and Waterloo. The corresponding counties only represent 58% of its voting age population, and Dubuque County, contrary to its homonymous seat, voted for Donald Trump by close to three points in the 2020 presidential election. The second district can thus safely house three relatively populous blue cities without itself turning blue. The presence of very Republican rural counties in the constituency largely compensates for the Democratic strongholds of Black Hawk County (Waterloo) and Linn County (Cedar Rapids).
In 2020, Republican Ashley Hinson defeated one-term incumbent Abby Finkenauer by a narrow 2.5 points margin, a somewhat smaller margin than that of Donald Trump in the presidential election (3.4 points). Under the new lines, the district shifted to the right (The current second district mostly corresponds to the former first district). Trump won by 4.4 points under the new lines, a shift of one point. However, while the district marginally shifted toward the Republican party because of redistricting, Rep. Hinson won re-election in 2022 by 8.3 points, a 5.8 points overperformance compared to her 2020 run.
2016 and 2020 presidential elections’ results in the 2nd district under the two plans proposed by the Legislative Services Agency
| First 2021 plan (rejected) | 2nd 2021 plan (enacted) | |
| Result of the 2016 presidential election | Trump +9.5 | Trump +4.6 |
| Result of the 2020 presidential election | Trump +10.8 | Trump +4.4 |
District 3
Iowa’s third district is the most competitive at the presidential level. The Des Moines-based district voted for Trump by a mere 0.4 point in 2020. Under the current lines, the district is made up of one urban county (Polk, home of Des Moines and 62% of the district’s voting age population), one suburban county (Dallas) and nineteen more rural counties. Although the rural counties put together have a much lower population than Polk, Trump’s margin in these counties was so high he netted more votes in the rurals than Biden did in Polk.
2020 presidential election under the 3rd district’s current lines by geographical area
| Voting age population (% of total district’s VAP) | 2020 presidential election margin (votes) | 2020 presidential election margin (in points) | |
| Polk County (Urban) | 371,655 (61.8%) | Biden +39,450 | Biden +15.2 |
| Dallas County (Suburban) | 72,050 (12.0%) | Trump +1,108 | Trump +2.0 |
| Rural counties | 157,253 (26.2%) | Trump +39,794 | Trump +37.4 |
| TOTAL | 600,958 (100%) | Trump +1,452 | Trump +0.4 |
The third district’s political identity was not changed much by redistricting. Under the former lines, Trump carried it by 0.1 point. However, its geography changed, the Republican vote under the new lines being much more rural than in the former district, which contained Pottawattamie County, a suburban county at the Nebraska border composed of rural areas and Council Bluffs, a red-leaning Omaha suburb. Under the new lines, Pottawattamie County has been relocated into the fourth district and a handful of rural deep-red counties in Southern Iowa have been added to the third in compensation. The first plan of the Legislative Services Agency proposed a slightly different version of the third district that included Warren County, a suburban/rural county South of Polk that only voted for Trump by 16.8 points, a smaller margin of victory than in most rural counties. This change would have slightly modified the district’s political leaning, Biden carrying the potential district by 0.2 point under these lines.
2016 and 2020 presidential elections’ results in the 3rd district under the two plans proposed by the Legislative Services Agency
| First 2021 plan (rejected) | 2nd 2021 plan (enacted) | |
| Result of the 2016 presidential election | Trump +2.3 | Trump +3.0 |
| Result of the 2020 presidential election | Biden +0.2 | Trump +0.4 |
District 4
Iowa’s fourth congressional district is the most Republican leaning district in the state. It is home to Sioux County, an overwhelmingly Republican county that last voted for the Democratic nominee in a presidential election in 1936. The district essentially represents the Northwestern portion of the state and includes one blue county, Story, which is located North of Polk County but has little to no effect on the district’s politics. Under the new lines adopted in 2021, the fourth district has lost some rural counties near Waterloo and gained Council Bluffs’ Pottawattamie County. In 2018, incumbent Steve King won a close race because of his extreme positions and far-right remarks rather than a shift in the district’s leaning.
2016 and 2020 presidential elections’ results in the 4th district under the two plans proposed by the Legislative Services Agency
| First 2021 plan (rejected) | 2nd 2021 plan (enacted) | |
| Result of the 2016 presidential election | Trump +31.8 | Trump +27.0 |
| Result of the 2020 presidential election | Trump +31.5 | Trump +25.9 |
Some resources:
-Brennan Center for Justice Iowa Guide to Redistricting: 2019_06_50States_FINALsinglepages_15.pdf (brennancenter.org)
-State rules on redistricting, Iowa legislature: LEGISLATIVE GUIDE TO REDISTRICTING IN IOWA
-The first plan of the Agency, rejected by the legislature: DRA 2020 (davesredistricting.org)
-The second plan of the Agency, approved by the legislature and signed into law by the Governor: DRA 2020 (davesredistricting.org)
-The congressional lines in effect from 2013 to 2023: DRA 2020 (davesredistricting.org)
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